Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
